Climate change work awarded 2019 PM’s Science Prize
GNS Science is proud to be part of the Melting Ice and Rising Seas team that was awarded the Prime Minister’s Science Prize for 2019. The project is a ground-breaking collaboration tackling the link between climate change, Antarctic ice melt, and sea level rise.
The multi-institutional team is led by Victoria University of Wellington (VUW) and includes Nancy Bertler, Richard Levy, and Liz Keller of GNS Science, and researchers from VUW and NIWA.
Using geological data from past intervals of warm climate, modern glacial observations, and computer models, the team has shown that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is highly sensitive to rising ocean temperatures. They have also shown that large regions of Antarctica’s ice sheets will retreat if our carbon dioxide emissions continue to rise such that the global temperature increase exceeds 2 degrees Celsius.
The impact of this melt and resulting sea level rise on Aotearoa New Zealand’s coastline will be large, with significant impact on our coastal communities and environments
The team’s research also suggests that if our climate system warms beyond 2 degrees, the ice will begin to retreat and cannot be stopped. This will commit the planet to many metres of sea level rise.
“These results emphasise that our choices right now will have significant consequences, not only for the coming decades but for centuries and millennia,” Dr Levy says.
The Prime Minister’s Science Prize is awarded for a ‘transformative scientific discovery or achievement, which has had a significant economic, health, social, and/or environmental impact on New Zealand’. The award reflects not only the world-class scholarship of the team, but also the impact and influence of their work.
Prime Minister's Science Prize Winner transcript
the melting ice and rising seas team
is made up of more than 20 geologists
glaciologists
climate and social scientists and also
the support team members from
tijeringawaka victoria university of
wellington
led by the university's antarctic
research center te puna partiotio
gns science and newer nominator
professor dame jane francis
director of british antarctic survey
says the team has put new zealand at the
forefront of global environmental
research
and made outstanding contributions to
what is a major topic of concern
for the world
i'm tim nash i'm a professor here at
victoria university of wellington
i'm privileged to be the the leader of
this team that's just won the prime
minister's science prize
there are many important things that we
need to to address in the world
climate change is obviously one of the
major ones and the antarctic ice sheet
is a key part of the climate system so
what we have found is that
antarctica the ross ice shelf the ocean
changed so much faster than we even
anticipated
we showed for the first time that if the
world warms
by two to three degrees which we're well
on track to doing
and we have 400 parts per million carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere is the current
concentration we have right now
the last time the world had a climate
like that sea level was 20 metres higher
the west antarctic ice sheet collapsed
and bits of the east antarctic ice sheet
disappeared
and bits of greenland disappeared what
we struggle with are the rates of
retreat how quickly can it go and that's
that's really what we're interested in
terms of policy relevance
the work we do and the geological
records feed into
the work that the climate modelers and
the ice sheet modelers do to understand
their rates so we can understand how
warm was it
how warm were the oceans why did the
oceans get warm and the modelers can
start saying well we can put these
numbers into our models
and see what's the response of the ice
sheet too warm in an ocean by a couple
of degrees celsius
the sea level rise is a big issue for us
you know we have a lot of infrastructure
a lot of housing and so on very close to
sea level so
as the ice sheets melt then the sea
level goes up
if we're going to be prepared for and
plan for what's coming in the future
with sea level rise and how new zealand
must adapt to it this is where our
research
is having a direct impact on planning
and decision making and making new
zealand resilient to climate change
The research and expertise of the team is markedly improving Aotearoa New Zealand’s ability to manage impacts of sea level rise. Their work is incorporated into our national Coastal Hazards Guidance and is being used by local government, iwi and other stakeholders across Aotearoa New Zealand. The team’s contributions are being enhanced through new research conducted under the Antarctic Science Platform, Resilience to Nature’s Challenges and Deep South National Science Challenges, and NZ SeaRise Programme.
In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, governments around the world have committed to unprecedented stimulus packages. It is critical that potential climate change impacts are considered, and expert advice will be central to ensuring economies put sustainability front and centre as they rebuild.
“The team’s research confirms the consequences of not doing so could be catastrophic for future generations,” says Dr Levy.
The group will invest $400,000 of its prize to fund scholarships in perpetuity for PhDs.