Coastal inundation in the Pacific

Overview

Climate change is the single greatest threat to the livelihoods, security and well-being of the peoples of the Pacific. As a result of climate change sea levels are rising and wave conditions are changing. This is increasing the potential risk of coastal hazards across the Pacific, particularly for low-lying atolls where there is limited ability to retreat from the coast.

GNS Science is conducting a pilot study, in partnership with Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT) and the Pacific Community (SPC), to assess the probability of inundation (flooding) from sea-level rise in Pacific Island countries.

The project is using a Bayesian Network model framework, which combines multiple relevant data sources and expert and local knowledge to evaluate the risk of inundation in a specific situation and location.

This model will form the basis of an interactive tool to help Pacific countries with decision-making and planning for current and future coastal inundation. The project team will train and support key contacts in country to use the tool, so they can make better policy and planning decisions, and to inform their emergency management planning and long-term adaptation options.

The model can be adapted to the needs of specific countries across the Pacific.

This project aims to

• Produce a model that assesses the probability of inundation under a changing climate that can be used to inform present and future sea level rise-related impacts in the Pacific;
• Train and support stakeholders in the Pacific to use the model and communicate findings to a non-technical audience.