MERIT
MERIT is a suite of integrated, spatial decision-support tools that estimate the socio-economic consequences across sectors and wellbeings associated with disruption events.
Overview
MERIT also applies to the skilled MERIT team who apply MERIT to a range of real-world problems. MERIT is a joint partnership between GNS Science, Market Economics (MEResearch) and Resilient Organisations. The combined skillsets across these organisations enable the MERIT team to apply MERIT to a range of complex and wicked problems.
This research collaboration aims to determine
- how social and economic systems are affected by disruptions
- who is affected and who is the most vulnerable to disruptions
- how can we best reduce impacts caused by disruptions
- how we create the policy conditions now that create resilient futures
- how we create a just (equitable) transition to a resilient future
To achieve these objectives, we
- create processes to apply a suite of integrated spatial decision-support tools to estimate the socio-economic consequences associated with disruption events
- evaluate disruptions through time and across space for multiple stakeholders
- capture household and business mitigations and behavioural adaptations which occur before and after an event
- provide accessible and coherent storylines and narratives around scenarios and events
The project
Measuring the economics of resilient infrastructure
Disruptions—whether caused by natural disasters or service outages—affect the socio-economic wellbeing of our communities. But the specifics of these impacts can be difficult to predict. Not knowing the actual socio-economic impacts of a particular disruption event creates challenges when making policy and investment decisions.
MERIT is a suite of tools that estimate the socio-economic consequences associated with disruption events. Disruptions are evaluated through time (covering both the event and the subsequent response, recovery and rebuild phases), across space (detailing spatial locations regionally and nationally) and for multiple stakeholders (from households to industries).
Why MERIT – MERIT is an integrated decision-support tool that creates a dynamic picture of a disrupted economy that helps us to better understand, plan for, and respond to, disruption events. transcript
when the lights go out or Internet
access is disrupted when the water stops
running or your city is impacted by a
natural disaster the economy is affected
but how is it affected who is most
affected and how can we best reduce the
impact merits is an integrated decision
support tool that models the
socio-economic impacts of disruption
merit models our infrastructure and
other disaster related disruption such
as building damaged population
relocation and tourism impacts affect
households and industries economic
impacts are assessed across time and
space at both regional and national
scale merit can be used to assess the
relative benefits of different
mitigation response and recovery options
for example what are the benefits of
investing in a more resilient
telecommunications network Meerut can
also be used to identify the main
drivers of economic impact so the most
effective intervention options can be
designed for example is it better to
support the recovery of manufacturing or
tourism industries Meerut creates a
dynamic picture of a disrupted economy
that helps us to better understand plan
for and respond to disruption events do
you know how best to invest to make your
community more resilient for more
information please visit our website and
contact our team
Why MERIT
MERIT is an integrated decision-support tool that creates a dynamic picture of a disrupted economy that helps us to better understand, plan for, and respond to, disruption events.
What is MERIT – An introduction to the MERIT suite of ‘Integrated Spatial Decision Support Systems’. transcript
the economy can be like a black box we
know what goes in and what comes out but
the middle is a bit of a mystery
this creates challenges when trying to
make good quality policy and investment
decisions here's where merits can help
merit is an integrated decision support
tool that models the socio-economic
impacts of disruption events it can
model single infrastructure outages such
as water service disruption or a power
cut through to more complex events such
as an earthquake Meerut is uniquely
designed to simulate the dynamics of a
shock event it takes all the moving
parts of the economy such as commodity
prices household spending labor
availability industry output in GDP and
models how each component changes over
time by understanding the inner workings
of a disrupted economy it helps us to
work out how best to reduce the impact
of future shocks so how does it work
the economic model at the core of
Merritt contains a complex web of
dynamic relationships and equations that
represent a real economy to simulate a
disruption the economic model must be
shocked' information of what is damaged
where service is affected and how long
it will take to restore each
infrastructure service as required as a
model and butcher this information needs
to account for any inter dependencies
that might affect how long each
infrastructure service takes to restore
for example water services might depend
on electricity to be restored first in
order for pumps to work this disruption
data is then used to estimate the
ability of industries to continue
operating from the initial onset of
disruption through to return to full
production the operability functions
link to the economic model as an
adjustment vector
merit can also account for other
possible disruption impacts such as
population relocation business
relocation tourism demand changes in
transportation system responses Merrik
combines all of these inputs and
simulates how the economy responds over
time merit can generate many different
economic measures such as output income
value edit and GDP it can also report on
changes such as imports and exports in
levels of investment the economic
measures can be reported over time at
industry or household level for both the
regional and national economy merit has
the potential to revolutionize how we
make decisions if you want to be part of
the revolution or you just want to make
some really well-informed decisions
check out our website and get in touch
with one of our team today
What is MERIT
An introduction to the MERIT suite of ‘Integrated Spatial Decision Support Systems’.
MERIT
The MERIT tool is a suite of inter-related modules.
- Inoperability MERIT – This provides data for short-run outages (between 1-day and 1-week) from localised small-scale disruption events such as electricity, gas, or telecommunication outages. It is designed to assess the economic impacts associated with small-to-medium sized disruption events. This model assumes that the economic impacts associated with disruption are limited to those felt directly and through flow-on supply chains, i.e. through delays in production and consumption activity. No price change or other market dynamics are assumed to be involved. It reports various economic aggregate impacts (e.g. output, income, value added, GDP) by industry for communities, regions and the national economy.
- Non-Spatial MERIT – This key MERIT tool is designed to assess the economic impacts associated with sizeable disruption events. It accounts for out-of-equilibrium impacts often arising from larger disruption events. These include dynamics associated with markets where supply and demand are out of kilter, causing behaviours that would not otherwise exist in normal household or business operating conditions. It reports various economic aggregate impacts (e.g. output, income, value added, GDP, factor prices, commodity process, welfare measures etc.) by industry for both the regional and national economy.
Key features of MERIT
MERIT assesses socio-economic impacts for different sizes of infrastructure outages. As an event unfolds, the suite of tools can assess the likely impending economic impact. The suite measures the nature and distribution of effects and changes as the economy recovers from the disruption. It also adds value to investment planning by assessing the socio-economic implications of any set of resilience investment options.
Instead of generating just a single dollar value at a fixed point in time, MERIT provides a high-resolution assessment across space and through time of the socio-economic consequences of infrastructure failure. MERIT considers business response and recovery options, giving an estimate of total economic loss generated. Outputs describe local, regional and national impacts. MERIT runs comfortably over a 50-year time horizon, with the first 15-years calibrated against real-world data. Over time MERIT will be developed to report across multiple capitals and impacts across different demographic groups.
Use and applications
The research collaboration encourages the ongoing development and use of MERIT for public-good research. We encourage others to develop and build upon MERIT for non-commercial purposes. Please contact one of the MERIT team if this is of interest to you.
Visit the MERIT website(external link) for more information on using MERIT for your particular project.
Our partner organisations
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Publications
MERIT case studies(external link)
All MERIT publications and outputs(external link)
2020
Brown C, McDonald G, Uma SR, Smith N, Sadashiva V, Buxton R, Grace E, Seville E, Daly M. 2020. From physical disruption to community impact: Modelling a Wellington Fault earthquake. Australasian Journal of Disaster and Trauma Studies, 23, 2, 65-75.
Cardwell R, McDonald G & Wotherspoon L. 2020. Simulation of post-volcanic eruption time variant land use and economic impacts in the Auckland region of New Zealand. Bulletin of Volcanology, 82(9), 64. DOI:10.1007/s00445-020-01400-9.
McDonald N, Timar L, McDonald G & Murray C. 2020. Better resilience evaluation: Reflections on Investments in Seismic Resilience for Infrastructure. Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering, 53(4), 203-214. DOI: 10.5459/bnzsee.53.4.203-214
McDonald N & McDonald G. 2020. Towards a Dynamic Equilibrium-Seeking Model of a Closed Economy. Systems, 8, 42; DOI:10.3390/systems8040042.
2019
Eaves A, Kench P, McDonald G, Dickson M. 2019. Balancing sustainable coastal management with development in New Zealand. In: P Khaiter & M Erectchoukova (Eds). Sustainability Perspectives: Science Policy and Practice. Springer, NY. Pp97-118.
Eaves A, Kench P, Dickson M & McDonald G. 2019. Coastal zone management, a case for integrating economic impact modelling and robust decision making with scenario planning. Presented at the New Zealand Coastal Society Conference 2019 – Life on the Edge – Mataroa kei runga i te Tapātai, 12-15 Nov, Invercargill, New Zealand.
Smith N, Brown C, McDonald G & Vergara M-J. 2019. Economics of Fuel Supply Disruptions and Mitigations: A report prepared for Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment. Market Economics, Takapuna.
Brown, C., Seville, E., Hatton, T., Stevenson, J., Smith, N., & Vargo, J. 2019. Accounting for Business Adaptations in Economic Disruption Models. Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 25(1), 4019001. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)IS.1943-555X.0000470
2018
McDonald G, Smith N, Kim, J.-H & Brown C, Buxton, R & Seville, E. (2018). Economic Systems Modelling of Infrastructure Interdependencies for an Alpine Fault Earthquake in New Zealand. Civil Engineering and Environmental Systems. DOI: 10.1080/10286608.2018.1544627.
Smith N, Brown C, Vergara MJ, McDonald G. 2018. Economics of Fuel Supply Disruptions and Mitigations. Report Prepared for MBIE, Market Economics, Takapuna.
Smith N, McDonald G, Brown C, Seville E, Buxton R, Uma S, Horspool N, Grace E, Harvey E, Ayers, M & Kim J-H. 2018. The Wellington Lifelines Regional Resilience Project, Wellington Lifelines, Wellington.
2017
McDonald G, Smith N, Ayers M, Kim J-H, & Harvey E. 2017. Economic impact of the 2016 Kaikoura Earthquake. A report prepared for the Ministry of Transport. Market Economics Ltd, Takapuna.
McDonald G, Smith N, Kim J-H & Cronin S. 2017. The spatial and temporal ‘cost’ of volcanic eruptions: assessing the economic impact, business inoperability, and spatial distribution of risk in the Auckland region, New Zealand. Bulletin of Volcanology, 79, 48. DOI 10.1007/s00445-017-1133-9.
Smith N, Brown C, McDonald G, Ayers M, Kipp R & Saunders, W. 2017. Challenges and Opportunities for Economic Evaluation of Disaster Risk Decisions. Econ Dis Cli Cha, DOI 10.1007/s41885-017-0007-0.
Smith N, McDonald G, Harvey E, Kim J-H. 2017. Introducing the MERIT economic model: a dynamic general equilibrium-seeking model to support decision analysis when out-of-equilibrium dynamics are important. The 22nd International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM 2017), Hobart, Tasmania, Australia, 3-5 Dec.
2016
Brown C, Horspool N, McDonald G, Sampson K, Seville E, Smith N, Stevenson J. 2018. Lessons from the 2016 Kaikoura Earthquake: Understanding the Impacts of a Potential Alpine Fault Earthquake on Government Productivity in Wellington. Resilient Organisations, Christchurch.
Kim J-H, Smith N, McDonald G. 2016. Auckland Electricity Outage Scenario: Modelling the Economic Consequences of Interruptions in Infrastructure Service using MERIT. Economics of Resilient Infrastructure Research Report 2016/04.
Stevenson J, Noy I, McDonald G, Seville E & Vargo J. 2016. Economic and Business Recovery. In: Natural Hazard Science, Oxford Research Encyclopaedias, DOI: 10.1093/acrefore/9780199389407.013.19.
Smith N, Kim J-H, McDonald G. 2016. Auckland Water Outage Scenario: Modelling the Economic Consequences of Interruptions in Infrastructure Service using MERIT. Economics of Resilient Infrastructure Research Report 2016/02.
Giovinazzi, S., Brown, C., Seville, E., Stevenson, J. R., Hatton, T., & Vargo, J. J. (2016). Criticality of infrastructures for organisations. International Journal of Critical Infrastructures, 12(4). https://doi.org/10.1504/IJCIS.2016.081303
2015
Buxton R, McDonald G, Seville E, Daly M, Smith N. 2015. It has MERIT! The development of a system dynamic tool for modelling the economic effects of infrastructure outages. Paper presented at the 2015 IPWEA Conference, 8-11 June, Rotorua, New Zealand.
Buxton R, Daly M, Wright, K Timar L, McDonald G, Smith N, Mieler D, Fenwick T. 2015. Single Infrastructure Failures: Capturing outage information for MERIT Modelling the Economics of Resilient Infrastructure Tool, abstract submitted to 2015 IPWEA Conference, Rotorua, 7-11 Jun.
Smith N, McDonald G & Kim J-H. 2016. Economic Impacts of the State Highway 4 Outage – June 2015. Economics of Resilient Infrastructure Research Report 2016/03. 15 p.
Smith N, Zhang Y, Cardwell R, McDonald G, Kim J-H & Murray C. 2015. Development of a Regional Social Accounting Framework for New Zealand, GNS Science Technical Report, GNS Science, Lower Hutt.
Brown, C., Stevenson, J. R., Giovinazzi, S., Seville, E., & Vargo, J. (2015). Factors influencing impacts on and recovery trends of organisations: Evidence from the 2010/2011 Canterbury earthquakes. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 14, 1–17. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2014.11.009
2014
McDonald G, Daly M, Deligne N, Smith N. 2014. Evaluating Economic Impacts of Infrastructure Outages: Introducing the MERIT Model and its Applicability to Volcanic Disasters. Presentation at the Cities on Volcanoes Conference, September 2014, Yogyakarta, Indonesia.McDonald G, Fenwick F & Buxton B. 2014. Economic Modelling and Interdependency Analysis. National Lifelines Forum, Wellington, New Zealand, 5-6 Nov.
McDonald G, Smith N & Murray C. 2014. Economic impacts of seismic events: Modelling. Contributed chapter in Beer M, Patelli E, Kougiomtzoglou I & Au I (Eds) Encyclopaedia of Earthquake Engineering. Springer Publishing.
Research programme details
Collaborators: GNS Science, Market Economics, Resilient Organisations
Duration
2012 – present
Funding platform
Resilience to Nature’s Challenges National Science Challenge, other research projects and commercial applications
Status
Current
Programme leaders
Michele Daly (GNS Science)
Charlotte Brown (Resilient Organisations)
Garry McDonald (ME Research)
Funder
Funder: MERIT was initially developed by the Economics of Resilient Infrastructure (ERI) team as part of a 4-year research project funded by the New Zealand government. Funding of $2.8 m for this project was granted in the New Zealand Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment’s 2012 Science Investment Round. The project ran from 2012 to 2016. Funding is now provided through the Resilience to Nature’s Challenges National Science Challenge, other research projects, and through fees-for-service commercial applications.