Changing Climate and Environment

We are focusing on coastal erosion and deposition, and the impacts of inundation, to project the impact of changing environmental systems on the future of urban environments, coastal zones and coastal systems. We will consider how changing land-use and climate affect our coastal groundwater systems, and the role of Earth surface and seafloor processes. We will look back at the past for insights into Aotearoa's biodiversity and the dynamics of the climate system.

We will do this by:

• Geomorphological mapping and characterisation of coastal north Taranaki
• LiDAR UAV surveys of Taranaki coastlines, to support the Our Changing Coast Endeavour programme
• Analysing sediment cores from north Taranaki estuary systems
• Assessing the impact of saltwater intrusion on groundwater systems
• Engaging with communities to understand, and plan for, coastal change
• Connecting with iwi and stakeholders in north Hokianga Harbour and northern Taranaki
• Engaging with stakeholders 

We are focusing on ice sheet variability and its contribution to ocean change, to project the impact of changing environmental systems on the future of urban environments, coastal zones and coastal systems. We want to understand how the Antarctic Ice Sheet will respond to changing climate, and how this change will affect Aotearoa. We will examine the equilibrium response of our climate and ocean system at decadal to intergenerational timescales.

We will do this by:

•  Reconstructing past sea ice and projecting future extents.
•  Reconstructing the climate of the past 11,000 years (Holocene) to assess how climate change extremes trigger changes to the natural baseline.
• Assessing the contribution of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin to future sea-level rise, quantifying East Antarctica’s contribution to sea-level rise during past warm periods to verify future projections of sea-level rise.

We are focusing on carbon transport in coastal environments to consider how we can integrate understanding of the broader carbon cycle into Aotearoa New Zealand’s approach and response to climate change.

We will do this by:

• Exploring how the interrelated processes of sediment transport, surface water flow, groundwater flow, landslides, and sea-level rise impact carbon movement and storage in coastal settings through a case study of the origin of carbon in coastal estuaries
• Developing analytical methods to understand the origins of carbon in coastal (shallow and fiord) systems
• Modelling the effect of sea-level rise and sediment transport on carbon in estuaries.
• Developing ‘systems thinking’ for coastal carbon

We are focusing on the ocean around New Zealand, and the Southern Ocean, to understand the equilibrium response of our climate and ocean system at decadal to intergenerational timescales. We will consider how we can integrate understanding of the broader carbon cycle into Aotearoa New Zealand’s approach and response to climate change, and how the Antarctic Ice Sheet will respond to changing climate. We will examine whether it is possible to reverse the impact of long-term fossil fuel use on our future climate trajectory.

We will do this by:

• Examining the climate thresholds associated with Marine Carbon Dioxide Removal (mCDF)
• Exploring the climate connections of Antarctic Ice Sheet changes to surface mass balance during the last millenium
• Exploring similarities in the drivers and timing of large-scale climate variability in New Zealand and Antarctica, with a focus on precipitation.

With a focus on freshwater and marine ecosystems, we are investigating how changing land-use and climate will affect our groundwater systems and impact freshwater security. We will analyse geological records to reveal insights about Aotearoa New Zealand’s biodiversity and the dynamics of the climate system. We explore the natural state we are trying to manage to, and how to incorporate Earth science into societal planning.

We will do this by:

• Documenting biodiversity and vegetation changes due to human land-use changes across Aotearoa New Zealand
• Developing a nationwide assessment of eutrophication/productivity, contamination and pollution in our lakes
• Developing automated microscopy to study diatoms and pollen in lake sediments
• A focus on records and impacts of extreme weather events on catchments and lake ecosystems
• Developing remote sensing tools to track ecosystem change in nearshore and ocean environments

We are focusing on urban carbon emissions and Southern Ocean carbon exchange to investigate how to integrate understanding of the broader carbon cycle into Aotearoa New Zealand’s approach and response to climate change. We will examine whether it is possible to offset long-term fossil fuel emissions to alter our future climate trajectory.

We will do this by:

• Developing laboratory methods to improve radiocarbon and carbon dioxide measurements to quantify fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions
• Determining Aotearoa New Zealand’s natural and anthropogenic carbon emissions and sinks
• Evaluating the carbon uptake of the Southern Ocean and seas around Aotearoa New Zealand

We are exploring how to develop model-informed monitoring and future-focused data acquisition networks across all our hazards, environment and energy risks. We will investigate how we can progress from monitoring hazards to forecasting their impacts, how to contribute to risk discussion for Aotearoa New Zealand, and how to incorporate Earth science into societal planning. We aim to ensure our research data is valued as a strategic asset and is available to other researchers and stakeholders.

Well will do this by:

• Revising research data principles based on user feedback.
• Collaborating with data project leaders across GNS research programmes
• Defining good practice indicators
• Applying research data principles to case studies across the Changing Climate and Environment programme