Staff profiles
David RhoadesEmeritus Scientist
Qualifications
- PhD, Mathematics
- BSc Hons, Mathematics
- BSc, Mathematics
- MSc, Mathematics
Areas of expertise
- Geophysics: Earthquake Forecasting Methodologies
- Geophysics: Applications of statistics
- Geophysics: Seismic hazard models
- Geophysics: Earthquake hazard modelling
- Geophysics: Probabilist hazard and risk
- Geophysics: Long-range earthquake forecasting
Major Publications
See all publications
- Statistical estimation of the duration of aftershock sequences, Geophysical Journal International 205(2): p. 1180-1189. DOI: 10.1093/gji/ggw075.
- Retrospective tests of hybrid operational earthquake forecasting models for Canterbury, Geophysical Journal International 204(1): p. 440-456. DOI: 10.1093/gji/ggv447.
- An earthquake classification scheme adapted for Japan determined by the goodness of fit for ground-motion prediction equations, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 105(5): p. 2750-2763. DOI: 10.1785/0120150013.
- Multiplicative earthquake likelihood models based on fault and earthquake data, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 105(6): p. 2955-2968. DOI: 10.1785/0120150080.
- Nonlinear site models derived from 1D analysis for ground-motion prediction equations using site class as the site parameter, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 105(4): p. 2010-2022. DOI: 10.1785/0120150019.
- Regional earthquake likelihood models II : information gains of multiplicative hybrids, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 104(6): p. 3072-3083. DOI: 10.1785/0120140035.
- Likelihood- and residual-based evaluation of medium-term earthquake forecast models for California, Geophysical Journal International 198(3): p. 1307-1318. DOI: 10.1093/gji/ggu178.
- Seismic hazard modeling for the recovery of Christchurch, New Zealand, Earthquake Spectra 30(1): p. 17-29. DOI: 10.1193/021913EQS037M.
- Determining rockfall risk in Christchurch using rockfalls triggered by the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence, Earthquake Spectra 30(1): p. 155-181. DOI: 10.1193/021413EQS026M.
- A new hybrid Coulomb/statistical model for forecasting aftershock rates, Geophysical Journal International 196(2): p. 918-923. DOI: 10.1093/gji/ggt404.
- Mixture models for improved earthquake forecasting with short-to-medium time horizons, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 103(4): p. 2203-2215. DOI: 10.1785/0120120233.
- Regional earthquake likelihood models I : first-order results, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 103(2A): p. 787-798. DOI: 10.1785/0120120186.
- Conditional probability of rupture of the Wairarapa and Ohariu faults, New Zealand, New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics 56(2): p. 53-67. DOI: 10.1080/00288306.2012.756042.
- An earthquake likelihood model based on proximity to mapped faults and catalogued earthquakes, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 102(4): p. 1583-1599. DOI: 10.1785/0120110326.
- Probabilistic relationships between ground-motion parameters and modified mercalli intensity in California, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 102(1): p. 204-221. DOI: 10.1785/0120110156.
- Effect of tectonic setting on the fit and performance of a long-range earthquake forecasting model, Research in Geophysics 2(1): p. 13-23. DOI: 10.4081/rg.2012.e3.
- Re-evaluation of conditional probability of rupture of the Wellington-Hutt Valley segment of the Wellington Fault, Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering 44(2): p. 77-86. DOI: 10.5459/bnzsee.44.2.77-86.
- Efficient testing of earthquake forecasting models, Acta Geophysica 59(4): p. 728-747. DOI: 10.2478/s11600-011-0013-5.
- Long-range predictability in physics-based synthetic earthquake catalogues, Geophysical Journal International 185(2): p. 1037-1048. DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.04993.x.
- Conventional N-, L-, and R-tests of earthquake forecasting models without simulated catalogs, Earth, Planets and Space 63(3): p. 275-287. DOI: 10.5047/eps.2010.08.007.
- Application of a long-range forecasting model to earthquakes in the Japan mainland testing region, Earth, Planets and Space 63(3): p. 197-206. DOI: 10.5047/eps.2010.08.002.
- Lessons and questions from thirty years of testing the precursory swarm hypothesis, Pure and Applied Geophysics 167(6/7): p. 629-644. DOI: 10.1007/s00024-010-0071-7.
- Correlation of static stress changes and earthquake occurrence in the North Aegean region, Pure and Applied Geophysics 167(8/9): p. 1049-1066. DOI: 10.1007/s00024-010-0092-2.
- Likelihood-based tests for evaluating space-rate-magnitude earthquake forecasts, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 100(3): p. 1184-1195. DOI: 10.1785/0120090192.
- Seismicity models of moderate earthquakes in Kanto, Japan utilizing multiple predictive parameters, Pure and Applied Geophysics 167(6/7): p. 831-843. DOI: 10.1007/s00024-010-0066-4.
- Long-range earthquake forecasting allowing for aftershocks, Geophysical Journal International 178(1): p. 244-256. DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2008.04083.x.
- Inhibition of very strong ground motion in response spectral attenuation models and effects of site class and tectonic category, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 99(3): p. 1487-1501. DOI: 10.1785/0120080279.
- Mixture models for improved short-term earthquake forecasting, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 99(2A): p. 636-646. DOI: 10.1785/0120080063.
- A simple test for inhibition of very strong shaking in ground-motion models, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 98(1): p. 448-453. DOI: 10.1785/0120070133.
- Application of the EEPAS model to forecasting earthquakes of moderate magnitude in southern California, Seismological Research Letters 78(1): p. 110-115.
- The EEPAS forecasting model and the probability of moderate-to-large earthquakes in central Japan, Tectonophysics 417(1/2): p. 119-130. DOI: 10.1016/j.tecto.2005.05.051.
- Long-term seismogenesis in Greece : comparison of the evolving stress field and precursory scale increase approaches, Journal of Geophysical Research. Solid Earth 111: B05318. DOI: 10.1029/2005JB003805.
- Comparative performance of time-variant, long-range and short-range forecasting models on the earthquake catalogue of Greece, Journal of Geophysical Research. Solid Earth 111(B9): B09304. DOI: 10.1029/2005JB004113.
- Test of the EEPAS forecasting model on the Japan earthquake catalogue, Pure and Applied Geophysics 162(6/7): p. 1271-1290.
- Long-range earthquake forecasting with every earthquake a precursor according to scale, Pure and Applied Geophysics 161(1): p. 47-72.
- Long-term seismogenesis and self-organized criticality, Earth, Planets and Space 56(8): p. 749-760.
- Demarcation and scaling of long-term seismogenesis, Pure and Applied Geophysics 161(1): p. 21-45. DOI: 10.1007/s00024-003-2435-8.
- Precursory scale increase and long-term seismogenesis in California and Northern Mexico, Annals of Geophysics 45(3/4): p. 479-495.
- Volcanic hazard in New Zealand : scaling and attenuation relations for tephra fall deposits from Taupo Volcano, Natural hazards 26: p. 147-174.
- Model of long-term seismogenesis, Annali di Geofisica 44(1): p. 81-93.
- Joint hazard of earthquake shaking at two or more locations, Earthquake Spectra 17(4): p. 697-710.
- The precursory earthquake swarm in Japan : hypothesis test, Earth, Planets and Space 51: p. 1267-1277.
- Long-term seismogenic process for major earthquakes in subduction zones, Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors 108(3): p. 185-199. DOI: 10.1016/S0031-9201(98)00104-6.
- The precursory earthquake swarm in New Zealand : hypothesis tests II, New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics 40(4): p. 537-547.
- Estimation of attenuation relations for strong-motion data allowing for individual earthquake magnitude uncertainties, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 87(6): p. 1674-1678.
- Estimation of the Gutenberg - Richter relation allowing for individual earthquake magnitude uncertainties, Tectonophysics 258 (1/4): p. 71-83. DOI: 10.1016/0040-1951(95)00182-4.