The Canterbury Time-dependent Seismic Hazard Model

The Canterbury Time-dependent Seismic Hazard Model estimates the amount of earthquake shaking in the Canterbury region for the next 50 years.

The following files are based on the model explained in Matthew Gerstenberger, Graeme McVerry, David Rhoades, and Mark Stirling (2014) Seismic Hazard Modeling for the Recovery of C hristchurch. Earthquake Spectra: February 2014, Vol. 30, No. 1, pp. 17-29.

The earthquake rate model can be downloaded here:
The file contains 50 one-year earthquake rate forecasts for each year between 2015 and 2064. This file was updated using earthquakes as of 01/01/15. The format is:

Column 1: Longitude (decimal)
Column 2: Latitude (decimal)
Column 3: Centre Moment Magnitude in each 0.1Mw magnitude bin. E.g., 5.0 indicates a magnitude bin of 4.95-5.04
Column 4: Number of Mw events within each magnitude bin

There are 50 files within the zip file:
eembiemax2015.txt, eembie2016.txt, eembie2017.txt, ..., eembie2064.txt

The year for the forecast is indicated in the file name and the forecast covers Jan 1st to December 31st of each year.

The combined forecast for 50 years is provided and can be downloaded here: eembiesum50yearsmw.txt

The fault source model file can be downloaded here: FaultCSHM.DAT

The format of the fault source file:
Rows 1-3: Ignore
Row 4: Abbreviated fault source name and slip type (rv=reverse, ss=strike-slip, nn=normal, nv=normal-volcanic, if=subduction interface, sr=strike-slip and reverse, sn=strike slip and normal, ns=(etc)
Row 5: Number of digital straight-line sections (n) making up the source
Row 6: Dip, dip direction, depth to base, depth to top
Row 7: Endpoints of fault source in degrees and mins, characteristic Mw, and mean/preferred recurrence interval
Rows 8 to (8+n-1): Endpoints of digital straight line sections making up fault source (one row per digital section)
Row 8+n-1: End of fault source delimiter

Please note, these files provide the expected number of events, and do not provide the expected shaking (hazard) levels.