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In conjunction with the conference, there will be a tutorial on Bayesian network modelling and different seminars.  These include

Tutorial on Bayesian Network Modelling

Prior to the conference, an Introduction to Bayesian Network Modelling training tutorial course will be held at Rutherford House, Victoria University of Wellington on 11-12 November. The training course will introduce participants to the basic theory behind Bayesian networks, common software packages used in Bayesian Network modelling, methods to develop Bayesian Network models and to incorporate a range of data, linking Bayesian Networks to GIS and introduction to expert elicitation. You will be able to register for the training tutorials and the conference separately or together. Note that that an additional fee is charged to attend the training tutorials.

Workshop on Theory of Constraints for Risk Analysis and Decision Making

This full-day workshop will provide a hands-on introduction to the Theory of Constraints’ thinking process tools and how they can be used for analysing problematic situations and making decisions.

Managers of businesses must continually make decisions in the face of uncertainty. Uncertainty invokes risk – “the effect of uncertainty on objectives”. In managerial decision-making, uncertainty (and thence risk) arises from (amongst other factors): information limits; information asymmetries; and bounded rationality caused by limits to time, data, or just the ability to think through the problem in the time available.

In these situations it helps to have structured ways of thinking through problems, rather than relying on intuition and expert judgement, since opportunities presented may not be the same as experienced before and old ways of thinking may not be a good guide.

Many risk analysis approaches use cause-effect logic for example to determine the likely cause of errors. However it is also helpful to use necessity-based thinking, eg to consider the conditions that are necessary for desired outcomes to be achieved.

The Theory of Constraints methodology, originally developed by Dr Eli Goldratt, includes mapping tools for mapping both cause-effect and necessary conditions, which can be used for goal-setting, and diagnosis through to implementation of decisions.

The workshop will include:

  • An overview of the suite of TOC-based thinking tools and how they can be used to guide analysis and decision making through to implementation.  These include methods to:
    • develop a high-level map of what’s needed to achieve a goal
    • generate creative solutions to resolve conflicts/tradeoffs
    • develop good solutions through testing proposed solutions, predicting unintended consequences and finding ways of preventing them 
    • developing action plans that achieve the necessary buy-in
  • Logic basics for building good causal and necessity logic maps
  • Practice using some of the tools

Workshop on Understanding Cultural Assessments

Did you ever think you could use songs, oral literature and visual arts as evidence in a statutory environmental decision making processes? Come and hear how we use these forms of mātauranga (Māori knowledge) to inform the New Zealand Environmental Protection Authority’s (EPA) process for assessing potential impacts of hazardous substances and new organisms (HSNO) on Māori.

New Zealand’s EPA is globally unique amongst national-level environmental regulators in having a statutory obligation to take the effects on indigenous interests into consideration when assessing and deciding HSNO applications. In order to help meet its statutory and other obligations to Māori, the EPA assesses all HSNO applications for the impact the substance or organism may have on Māori. These assessments look at the potential effects on culturally significant species, resources, and places, the customary values, practices and uses associated with these taonga, and the resulting impact this may have on Māori wellbeing, culture, traditions, and the relationship of Māori with the environment. The cultural assessments are based on mātauranga (Māori knowledge), which has its own unique characteristics that are as valid as, but different from, other knowledge systems, including science.

The workshop will cover how hazardous substances and new organisms can potentially impact on cultural receptors and the well-being of Māori; what mātauranga (Māori knowledge) is and how it informs HSNO approval processes, including how to assess information from cultural sources such as tikanga (customary practices and usages), maramataka (Māori lunar calendar), pūrākau (stories), whakataukī (proverbs), and mahi toi (the arts), in cultural risk assessments; how to mitigate potential impacts on the environmental, economic, social and cultural well-being of Māori; and why engagement with Māori at iwi/hapū/whānau levels is important for HSNO applications and how it can be undertaken. No prior knowledge of Māori culture is required. It is assumed participants are not familiar with Te Ao Māori (the Māori world and ways of life). More details on workshop here :  Cultural_assessment_workshop-SRAANZconference2019.pdf (262.83 kB)