Workshop Program

November 2-4.5: Workshop at Te Papa Museum, Wellington, New Zealand
November 4.5-7: Field trip to South Island

Detailed Program below

Theme: This workshop will build on the outcomes from the NIED-TEM meeting at NIED in August, 2015. We would like to have the overall theme to be guided by PSHA. Specifically in the context of current PSHA methods and how each country is using new methods to improve hazard estimates. Topics not directly contributing to PSHA but that are aimed at improving overall hazard estimates are also welcome.

Outputs: We will aim for discussion papers based on the breakout sessions. We intend to produce a special issue for Seismological Research Letters based on the workshop and its outcomes.


  • Part 1: 5 Oral Sessions – including parallel sessions. We will aim for equal discussing time with presentation time.
  • Part 2: 2 Breakout sessions of 2 hours each
  • Part 3: Poster Sessions

Oral Session Themes:

1) Overview of the NSHM from each country including topics such as science, end-user needs, governing structure, and IT.
2) Data, Modelling & Uncertainty. How models are created, and, how uncertainty in the modelling: 1) is currently assessed, modelled and included; 2) could be better quantified; and 3) is or could be assessed in a rigorous testing framework. This includes application to all data and model aspects of SHA, e.g., paleoseismic data, geodetic data, seismicity models, GMPEs, ground-motion simulations, statistical testing to quantify improvements in models, etc. This session will probably need to be longer than the others
3) Time-dependence. Estimating time-dependent earthquake rates, at all time-scales, on faults, with cluster models and with alternative data-sets (e.g., slow slip, crustal strain, tremor).
4) Ground-motion prediction. Site-amplification, topographic amplification, long-period basin structure, geological structure, and scenario earthquake shaking.
5) Hazard and Risk Products. Risk modelling, online hazard products, etc

Breakout Sessions:

Field Trip: S. Island: Wairau Fault, Alpine Fault, Buller/Inangahua, Fox Glacier, Hanmer Springs, and Hope Fault.
Find the details of the field trip here

Preliminary Detailed Schedule

Monday, November 2nd

8:30 - 9:00 Registration and coffee
9:00 - 9:05 Welcome

9:05 - 9:10 Ken Gledhill: Welcome from GeoNet

9:10 - 9.30 Kelvin Berryman: Perspectives & Introductory address, Natural Hazards Research Platform

Overview of SHA by Country

9:30 - 9:50 NZ

  • Mark Stirling & Matt Gerstenberger: The New Zealand NSHM and ReThinking PSHA

10:00 - 10:20 Taiwan

  • Yu-Ju Wang: The progress of Taiwan Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA)
  • Kuo-Fong Ma & Ruey-Juin Rau: The TEM Model

10:30 - 10:50 Morning Tea
10:50 - 11:10 Japan

  • 藤原広行(Hiroyuki Fujiwara): National Seismic Hazard Maps for Japan

GEM Special Session

11:10 - 11:30 Marco Pagani: A Comparison of the Japan, Taiwan and New Zealand Seismic Hazard Models

Data, Modelling & Uncertainty I

11:30 - 11:40 Introduction and setting the scene

  • Matt Gerstenberger 

Faults and Fault Data

11:40 - 12:10 Taiwan

  • Yuan-Hsi Lee, seismotectonic structure around the Chiayi area, southwestern Taiwan
  • Ling-Ho Chung, The status of active fault parameter in TEM and unresolved problems

12:10 - 1:15 Lunch at Te Papa
1:15 - 1:45 Japan

  • 粟田泰夫(Yasuo Awata): Geomorphological detectivity of active fault and it’s implication for the estimation of fault magnitude
  • 吾妻崇(Takashi Azuma): Application of geological information for construction of the fault model for SHA

1:45 - 2:15 New Zealand

  • Mark Stirling: Overview and Thoughts About the NZ Fault Model
  • Andy Nicol: Completeness of the NZ Fault Database

2:15 - 2:45 Discussion

Background and earthquake catalogue models

2:45 - 3:15 Japan

Ken XS Hao & Hiroyuki Fujiwara: Earthquake Regionalisation, Maximum Magnitude and Earthquake Occurrence Number for PSHA

3:15-3:45 Afternoon tea
3:45 - 4:15 New Zealand

  • Annemarie Christophersen: Catalogues: Quality, Completeness and Magnitudes
  • David Rhoades: Model Combining and Forecast Optimisation

4:15 - 4:45 Taiwan

  • Yating Lee: Completeness of the Taiwan earthquake catalogue: a, b values analysis

4:45 - 5:00 Discussion

5:00 - 6:30 Breakout session: Future directions of SHA 1

Introduction: Bill Fry

What are promising future directions? What do we need to do to initiate these areas of research? e.g., What is the role of simulated data (earthquake rates and ground-motions) vs. observational models?

No official dinner

Tuesday November 3rd

Data, Modelling & Uncertainty II

Geodetic modelling

8:45 - 9:15 New Zealand

  • Sigrun Hreinsdottir & Ian Hamling: 

9:15 - 9:45 Taiwan

  • Ruey-Juin Rau, GPS-derived crustal deformation of Taiwan

9:45 - 10:05 Japan

  • 武田哲也(Tetsuya Takeda):Crustal deformation before and after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake,Japan: Significance of off-shore observations for plate subduction zone

10:05 - 10:20 Discussion
10:20 - 10:40 Morning Tea

Site Amplification

10:40 - 11:10 Japan

  • 先名重樹(Shigeki Senna): Modeling of the subsurface structure from the seismic bedrock to the ground surface for a broadband strong motion evaluation
  • 木村克己(Katsumi Kimura): Shallow-level 3D subsurface modelling based on borehole data for SHA
  • 遠山信彦(Nobuhiko Toyama): Site Amplification by various data for SHA

11:10 - 11:30 New Zealand

  • Anna Kaiser 

11:30 - 11:50 Taiwan

  • Kuo-Liang Wen: Simulating shallow soil response in the western plain of Taiwan

11:50 - 12:00 Discussion
12:00 - 1:00 Lunch at Te Papa

Ground Motion Prediction & Scenarios

1:00 - 1:40 New Zealand

  • Graeme McVerry
  • Chris Van Houtte
  • Caroline Holden & Rafael Benites

1:40 - 2:20 Taiwan

  • Chyi-Tyi Lee: The development of Taiwan GMPE Models
  • Jia-Cian Gao: The importance and how to reduce of sigma in idealized PSHA
  • Kuo-Fong Ma: Earthquake scenarios: from historical events to seismic hazard and risk

2:20 - 3:00 Japan

  • Nobuyuki Morikawa: A new GMPE and its application probabilistic seismic hazard assessment
  • Takahiro Maeda: Waveform simulation for the scenario earthquake shaking maps
  • Shin Aoi:NIED Observation Networks and Accumulated Databases of Earthquake Catalogs and Waveforms

3:00 - 3:30 Discussion
3:30 - 4:30 Poster Session & Afternoon Tea
4:30 - 6:00 Museum visit

6:30 Conference Dinner

Wednesday, November 4th

Parallel Session

Session 1

Model Validation

8:30 - 8:50 New Zealand

  • Matt Gerstenberger & Mark Stirling: Importance of Testing of Applied PSHA 

8:50 - 9:05 Japan

  • Nobuyuki Morikawa: Validation of the probabilistic seismic hazard maps for Japan

9:05 - 9:20 Taiwan

  • Yating Lee: Near-source ground-motion validation: Based on spatial stochastic model with slip self-similarity

9:20 - 9:30 Discussion

Time-Dependent Models

9:30 - 10:00 New Zealand

  • David Rhoades: Applications of EEPAS in Japan
  • Matt Gerstenberger: Time-dependence in Applied PSHA 

10:00 - 10:15 Japan

  • Masajiro Imoto, & Nobuyuki Morikawa & Hiroyuki Fujiwara: BPT Model parameters in Japan and the Bayesian model of the Kanto earthquake 

10:15 - 10:30 Taiwan

  • Yu-Ru Wang Preliminary Studies for Time-Dependent PSHA

Session 2

Hazard and Risk Products

8:30 - 8:45 Taiwan
8:45 - 9:30 New Zealand

  • Nick Horspool
  • Andrew King

9:30 - 10:15 Japan

  • Hiroki Azuma: Development of J-SHIS - an integrated seismic hazard information system in Japan
  • Horimitsu Nakamura: Development of a real-time system for earthquake damage estimation in Japan

10:15 - 10:30 Discussion
10:30 - 12:00 Morning tea+ Breakout Session 2: Future Directions of SHA
What are the highest priority areas for improving SHA both in the short and medium term? This should be a list of 5-10 of the most important research topics that should be focused on and why.

12:00-12:30 Discussion of Breakout Results & Wrap up



Kuo-Liang Wen: Nonlinear soil response during the 2010 Darfield, New Zealand earthquake sequence

Ching-Yu Cheng: Crustal structure of the Taiwan Strait from ambient noise tomography

Chyi-Tyi Lee: The development of statistical seismic landslide hazard analysis 


Nobuhiko Toyama: Site Amplification by various data for SHA

Nobuyuki Morikawa: Application of revised ground motion prediction equation to the probabilistic seismic hazard maps for Japan

Katsumi Kimura and Masahiro Ooi: Shallow subsurface 3D geologic modelling based on borehole data for SHA