Matt Gerstenberger


Full Name: Matt Gerstenberger

Position: Seismologist

Contact details

Email me here
Phone: +64-4-570 4554


1992: BSc, Geophysics; 1994: MSc, Geophysics; 2003: PhD, Seismology

Areas of expertise

Geology: CO2 sequestration
Geophysics: Applications of statistics
Geophysics: CO2 Sequestration Risk Assessment
Geophysics: Earthquake Forecasting Methodologies
Geophysics: Earthquake hazard modelling
Geophysics: Earthquake loss modelling
Geophysics: Hazard and risk assessment
Geophysics: Long-range forecasting
Geophysics: Probabilist hazard and risk
Geophysics: Real-time seismological analysis
Geophysics: Real-time seismological monitoring
Geophysics: Seismic hazard models
Geophysics: Time Varying Hazard

Professional activities

American Geophysical Union: member
Seismology Society of America: member
Regional Earthquake Likelihood Modelling Group (RELM): leader/contributor
Southern California Earthquake Centre: contributor
New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering: member
Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predicibility: advisor/contributor
New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering: Member

Major publications

Stirling, M.W.; Gerstenberger, M.C. 2018 Applicability of the Gutenberg-Richter relation for major active faults in New Zealand. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 108(2): 718-728; doi: 10.1785/0120160257

Rhoades, D.A.; Christophersen, A.; Gerstenberger, M.C. 2017 Multiplicative earthquake likelihood models incorporating strain rates. Geophysical Journal International, 208(3): 1764-1774; doi: 10.1093/gji/ggw486

Gerstenberger, M.C.; Christophersen, A. 2016 A Bayesian network and structured expert elicitation for Otway Stage 2C : detection of injected CO2 in a saline aquifer. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, 51: 317-329; doi: 10.1016/j.ijggc.2016.05.011

Gerstenberger, M.C.; Fry, B. 2016 Preface to the focus section on the joint Japan–Taiwan–New Zealand national seismic hazard model collaboration. Seismological Research Letters, 87(6): 1236-1239; doi: 10.1785/0220160166

Gerstenberger, M.C.; Rhoades, D.A.; McVerry, G.H. 2016 A hybrid time-dependent probabilistic seismic-hazard model for Canterbury, New Zealand. Seismological Research Letters, 87(6): 1311-1318; doi: 10.1785/0220160084

Rhoades, D.A.; Liukis, M.; Christophersen, A.; Gerstenberger, M.C. 2016 Retrospective tests of hybrid operational earthquake forecasting models for Canterbury. Geophysical Journal International, 204(1): 440-456; doi: 10.1093/gji/ggv447

Gerstenberger, M.C.; Christophersen, A.; Buxton, R.; Nicol, A. 2015 Bi-directional risk assessment in carbon capture and storage with Bayesian Networks. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, 35: 150-159; doi: 10.1016/j.ijggc.2015.01.010

Gerstenberger, M.C.; McVerry, G.H.; Rhoades, D.A.; Stirling, M.W. 2014 Seismic hazard modeling for the recovery of Christchurch, New Zealand. Earthquake Spectra, 30(1): 17-29; doi: 10.1193/021913EQS037M

Jordan, T.H.; Marzocchi, W.; Michael, A.J.; Gerstenberger, M.C. 2014 Operational earthquake forecasting can enhance earthquake preparedness. Seismological Research Letters, 85(5): 955-959; doi: 10.1785/0220140143

Stirling, M.W.; McVerry, G.H.; Gerstenberger, M.C.; Litchfield, N.J.; Van Dissen, R.J.; Berryman, K.R.; Barnes, P.; Wallace, L.M.; Villamor, P.; Langridge, R.M.; Lamarche, G.; Nodder, S.; Reyners, M.E.; Bradley, B.; Rhoades, D.A.; Smith, W.D.; Nicol, A.; Pettinga, J.; Clark, K.J.; Jacobs, K.M. 2012 National seismic hazard model for New Zealand : 2010 update. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 102(4): 1514-1542; doi: 10.1785/0120110170

Worden, C.B.; Gerstenberger, M.C.; Rhoades, D.A.; Wald, D.J. 2012 Probabilistic relationships between ground-motion parameters and modified mercalli intensity in California. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 102(1): 204-221; doi: 10.1785/0120110156

Fry, B.; Gerstenberger, M.C. 2011 Large apparent stresses from the Canterbury earthquakes of 2010 and 2011. Seismological Research Letters, 82(6): p, 833-838; doi: 10.1785/gssrl.82.6.833

Gerstenberger, M.C.; Cubrinovski, M.; McVerry, G.H.; Stirling, M.W.; Rhoades, D.A.; Bradley, B.; Langridge, R.M.; Webb, T.H.; Peng, B.; Pettinga, J.; Berryman, K.R.; Brackley, H.L. 2011 Probabilistic assessment of liquefaction potential for Christchurch in the next 50 years. Lower Hutt: GNS Science. GNS Science report 2011/15. 25 p.

Gerstenberger, M.C.; McVerry, G.H.; Rhoades, D.A.; Stirling, M.W.; Berryman, K.R.; Webb, T.H. 2011 Update of the Z-factor for Christchurch considering earthquake clustering following the Darfield earthquake. Lower Hutt: GNS Science. GNS Science report 2011/29. 20 p.

Gerstenberger, M.C.; Rhoades, D.A. 2010 New Zealand Earthquake Forecast Testing Centre. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 167(8/9): 877-892; doi: 10.1007/s00024-010-0082-4

Stirling, M.W.; Gerstenberger, M.C. 2010 Ground motion-based testing of seismic hazard models in New Zealand. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 100(4): 1407-1414; doi: 10.1785/0120090336

Gerstenberger, M.C.; Nicol, A.; Stenhouse, M.; Allinson, G.; Berryman, K.R.; Doody, B.J.; Ho, M.; McCurdy, M.; Neal, P.; Stirling, M.W.; Webb, T.H.; Wright, K.C. 2009 Opportunities for underground geological storage of CO2 in New Zealand : report CCS-08/10, risk assessment methodologies. Lower Hutt: GNS Science. GNS Science report 2009/63. 74 p.

Gerstenberger, M.C. 2008 State of earthquake forecasting in New Zealand. p. 34-35 (paper 6.5) IN: Proceedings of the 2008 RMS Science Symposium : advances in earthquake forecasting, 23 January 2008, New York. Newark, Calif.: Risk Management Solutions

Rhoades, D.A.; Gerstenberger, M.C.; Christophersen, A.; Savage, M.; Zhuang, J. 2008 Testing and development of earthquake forecasting models. GNS Science consultancy report 2008/70. 1 v. (various pagings)

Stirling, M.W.; Gerstenberger, M.C.; Litchfield, N.J.; McVerry, G.H.; Smith, W.D.; Pettinga, J.; Barnes, P. 2008 Seismic hazard of the Canterbury region, New Zealand : new earthquake source model and methodology. Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering, 41(2): 51-67

Gerstenberger, M.C.; Jones, L.M.; Wiemer, S. 2007 Short term aftershock probabilities : case studies in California. Seismological Research Letters, 78(1): 66-77

Gerstenberger, M.C.; Worden, C.B.; Wald, D.J. 2007 A probabilistic relationship between ground shaking parameters and MMI based on felt report data. paper 34 IN: New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering : performance by design, can we predict it? : conference proceedings, Palmerston North, 30 March-1 April 2007. Wellington, NZ: New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering

Schorlemmer, D.; Gerstenberger, M.C. 2007 RELM testing center. Seismological Research Letters, 78(1): 30-36

Schorlemmer, D.; Gerstenberger, M.C.; Wiemer, S.; Jackson, D.D.; Rhoades, D.A. 2007 Earthquake likelihood model testing. Seismological Research Letters, 78(1): 17-29

Gerstenberger, M.C.; Wiemer, S.; Jones, L.M.; Reasenberg, P.A. 2005 Real-time forecasts of tomorrow's earthquakes in California. Nature, 435(7040): 328-331

Gerstenberger, M.C.; Wiemer, S.; Jones, L. 2004 Real-time forecasts of tomorrow's earthquakes in California : a new mapping tool. Denver, Colo.: US Geological Survey. Open-file report / US Geological Survey 2004-1390. 39 p.

Wiemer, S.; Gerstenberger, M.C.; Hauksson, E. 2002 Properties of the aftershock sequence of the 1999, MW 7.1 Hector Mine Earthquake : implications for aftershock hazard. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 92(4): 1227–1240

Gerstenberger, M.C.; Wiemer, S.; Giardini, D. 2001 A systematic test of the hypothesis that the b value varies with depth in California. Geophysical Research Letters, 28(1): 57-60

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