David Rhoades

 

Full Name: David Rhoades

Position: Geophysical Statistician

Contact details

Email: D.Rhoades
Phone: +64-4-570 4680

Qualifications

1969: BSc, Mathematics; 1970: BSc Hons (1st Class), Mathematics; 1974: MSc, Mathematics; 1976: PhD, Mathematics

Areas of expertise

Geophysics: Applications of statistics
Geophysics: Earthquake Forecasting Methodologies
Geophysics: Earthquake hazard modelling
Geophysics: Long-range earthquake forecasting
Geophysics: Probabilist hazard and risk
Geophysics: Seismic hazard models

Professional activities

Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth: Associate Editor
New Zealand Geophysical Society: Member
NZ Statistical Association: Member
New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering: Member
NZ Mathematical Society: Member
The Royal Society of New Zealand: IASPEI: National Correspondent
IASPEI (Intern. Ass. of Seismology Physics of the Earths Interior: Working Group on Earthquake Predictability: Chair
The Royal Society of New Zealand: IUGG: National Convener

Major publications

Hainzl, S.; Christophersen, A.; Rhoades, D.A.; Harte, D.S. 2016 Statistical estimation of the duration of aftershock sequences. Geophysical Journal International, 205(2): 1180-1189; doi: 10.1093/gji/ggw075

Rhoades, D.A.; Liukis, M.; Christophersen, A.; Gerstenberger, M.C. 2016 Retrospective tests of hybrid operational earthquake forecasting models for Canterbury. Geophysical Journal International, 204(1): 440-456; doi: 10.1093/gji/ggv447

Rhoades, D.A.; Christophersen, A.; Gerstenberger, M.C. 2015 Multiplicative earthquake likelihood models based on fault and earthquake data. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 105(6): 2955-2968; doi: 10.1785/0120150080

Zhao, J.G.; Hu, J.; Jiang, F.; Zhou, J.; Zhang, Y.; An, X.; Lu, M.; Rhoades, D.A. 2015 Nonlinear site models derived from 1D analysis for ground-motion prediction equations using site class as the site parameter. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 105(4): 2010-2022; doi: 10.1785/0120150019

Zhao, J.X.; Zhou, S.; Gao, P.; Long, T.; Zhang, Y.; Thio, H.K.; Lu, M.; Rhoades, D.A. 2015 An earthquake classification scheme adapted for Japan determined by the goodness of fit for ground-motion prediction equations. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 105(5): 2750-2763; doi: 10.1785/0120150013

Gerstenberger, M.C.; McVerry, G.H.; Rhoades, D.A.; Stirling, M.W. 2014 Seismic hazard modeling for the recovery of Christchurch, New Zealand. Earthquake Spectra, 30(1): 17-29; doi: 10.1193/021913EQS037M

Massey, C.I.; McSaveney, M.J.; Taig, T.; Richards, L.; Litchfield, N.J.; Rhoades, D.A.; McVerry, G.H.; Lukovic, B.; Heron, D.W.; Ries, W.; Van Dissen, R.J. 2014 Determining rockfall risk in Christchurch using rockfalls triggered by the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence, New Zealand. Earthquake Spectra, 30(1): 155-181; doi: 10.1193/021413EQS026M

Rhoades, D.A.; Gerstenberger, M.C.; Christophersen, A.; Zechar, J.D.; Schorlemmer, D.; Werner, M.J.; Jordan, T.H. 2014 Regional earthquake likelihood models II : information gains of multiplicative hybrids. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 104(6): 3072-3083; doi: 10.1785/0120140035

Schneider, M.; Clements, R.; Rhoades, D.A.; Schorlemmer, D. 2014 Likelihood- and residual-based evaluation of medium-term earthquake forecast models for California. Geophysical Journal International, 198(3): 1307-1318; doi: 10.1093/gji/ggu178

Steacy, S.; Gerstenberger, M.C.; Williams, C.A.; Rhoades, D.A.; Christophersen, A. 2014 A new hybrid Coulomb/statistical model for forecasting aftershock rates. Geophysical Journal International, 196(2): 918-923; doi: 10.1093/gji/ggt404

Rhoades, D.A. 2013 Mixture models for improved earthquake forecasting with short-to-medium time horizons. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 103(4): 2203-2215; doi: 10.1785/0120120233

Van Dissen, R.J.; Rhoades, D.A.; Little, T.; Litchfield, N.J.; Carne, R.; Villamor, P. 2013 Conditional probability of rupture of the Wairarapa and Ohariu faults, New Zealand. New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics, 56(2): 53-67; doi: 10.1080/00288306.2012.756042

Zechar, D.; Schorlemmer, D.; Werner, M.J.; Gerstenberger, M.C.; Rhoades, D.A.; Jordan, T.H. 2013 Regional earthquake likelihood models I : first-order results. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 103(2A): 787-798; doi: 10.1785/0120120186

Rhoades, D.A.; Somerville, P.G.; de Oliveira, F.D.; Thio, H.K. 2012 Effect of tectonic setting on the fit and performance of a long-range earthquake forecasting model. Research in Geophysics, 2(1): 13-23; doi: 10.4081/rg.2012.e3

Rhoades, D.A.; Stirling, M.W. 2012 An earthquake likelihood model based on proximity to mapped faults and catalogued earthquakes. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 102(4): 1583-1599; doi: 10.1785/0120110326

Worden, C.B.; Gerstenberger, M.C.; Rhoades, D.A.; Wald, D.J. 2012 Probabilistic relationships between ground-motion parameters and modified mercalli intensity in California. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 102(1): 204-221; doi: 10.1785/0120110156

Imoto, M.; Rhoades, D.A.; Fujiwara, H.; Yamamoto, N. 2011 Conventional N-, L-, and R-tests of earthquake forecasting models without simulated catalogs. Earth, Planets and Space, 63(3): 275-287; doi: 10.5047/eps.2010.08.007

Rhoades, D.A. 2011 Application of a long-range forecasting model to earthquakes in the Japan mainland testing region. Earth, Planets and Space, 63(3): 197-206; doi: 10.5047/eps.2010.08.002

Rhoades, D.A.; Robinson, R.; Gerstenberger, M.C. 2011 Long-range predictability in physics-based synthetic earthquake catalogues. Geophysical Journal International, 185(2): 1037-1048; doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.04993.x

Rhoades, D.A.; Schorlemmer, D.; Gerstenberger, M.C.; Christophersen, A.; Zechar, J.D.; Imoto, M. 2011 Efficient testing of earthquake forecasting models. Acta Geophysica, 59(4): 728-747; doi: 10.2478/s11600-011-0013-5

Rhoades, D.A.; Van Dissen, R.J.; Langridge, R.M.; Little, T.A.; Ninis, D.; Smith, E.G.C.; Robinson, R. 2011 Re-evaluation of conditional probability of rupture of the Wellington-Hutt Valley segment of the Wellington Fault. Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering, 44(2): 77-86

Imoto, M.; Rhoades, D.A. 2010 Seismicity models of moderate earthquakes in Kanto, Japan utilizing multiple predictive parameters. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 167(6/7): 831-843; doi: 10.1007/s00024-010-0066-4

Rhoades, D.A. 2010 Lessons and questions from thirty years of testing the precursory swarm hypothesis. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 167(6/7): 629-644; doi: 10.1007/s00024-010-0071-7

Rhoades, D.A.; Papadimitriou, E.E.; Karakostas, V.G.; Console, R.; Murru, M. 2010 Correlation of static stress changes and earthquake occurrence in the North Aegean region. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 167(8/9): 1049-1066; doi: 10.1007/s00024-010-0092-2

Zechar, J.D.; Gerstenberger, M.C.; Rhoades, D.A. 2010 Likelihood-based tests for evaluating space-rate-magnitude earthquake forecasts. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 100(3): 1184-1195; doi: 10.1785/0120090192

Rhoades, D.A. 2009 Long-range earthquake forecasting allowing for aftershocks. Geophysical Journal International, 178(1): 244-256; doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2008.04083.x

Rhoades, D.A.; Gerstenberger, M.C. 2009 Mixture models for improved short-term earthquake forecasting. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 99(2A): 636-646; doi: 10.1785/0120080063

Zhao, J.X.; Rhoades, D.A.; McVerry, G.H.; Somerville, P.G. 2009 Inhibition of very strong ground motion in response spectral attenuation models and effects of site class and tectonic category. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 99(3): 1487-1501; doi: 10.1785/0120080279

Rhoades, D.A.; Zhao, J.X.; McVerry, G.H. 2008 A simple test for inhibition of very strong shaking in ground-motion models. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 98(1): 448-453; doi: 10.1785/0120070133

Rhoades, D.A. 2007 Application of the EEPAS model to forecasting earthquakes of moderate magnitude in southern California. Seismological Research Letters, 78(1): 110-115

Console, R.; Rhoades, D.A.; Murru, M.; Evison, F.F.; Papadimitriou, E.E.; Karakostas, V.G. 2006 Comparative performance of time-variant, long-range and short-range forecasting models on the earthquake catalogue of Greece. Journal of Geophysical Research. Solid Earth, 111(B9): B09304; doi: 10.1029/2005JB004113

Papadimitriou, E.E.; Evison, F.F.; Rhoades, D.A.; Karakostas, V.G.; Console, R.; Murru, M.R. 2006 Long-term seismogenesis in Greece : comparison of the evolving stress field and precursory scale increase approaches. Journal of Geophysical Research. Solid Earth, 111: B05318; doi: 10.1029/2005JB003805

Rhoades, D.A.; Evison, F.F. 2006 The EEPAS forecasting model and the probability of moderate-to-large earthquakes in central Japan. Tectonophysics, 417(1/2): 119-130; doi: 10.1016/j.tecto.2005.05.051

Rhoades, D.A.; Evison, F.F. 2005 Test of the EEPAS forecasting model on the Japan earthquake catalogue. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 162(6/7): 1271-1290

Evison, F.F.; Rhoades, D.A. 2004 Long-term seismogenesis and self-organized criticality. Earth, Planets and Space, 56(8): 749-760

Evison, F.F.; Rhoades, D.A. 2004 Demarcation and scaling of long-term seismogenesis. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 161(1): 21-45; doi: 10.1007/s00024-003-2435-8

Rhoades, D.A.; Evison, F.F. 2004 Long-range earthquake forecasting with every earthquake a precursor according to scale. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 161(1): 47-72

Evison, F.F.; Rhoades, D.A. 2002 Precursory scale increase and long-term seismogenesis in California and Northern Mexico. Annals of Geophysics, 45(3/4): 479-495

Rhoades, D.A.; Dowrick, D.J.; Wilson, C.J.N. 2002 Volcanic hazard in New Zealand : scaling and attenuation relations for tephra fall deposits from Taupo Volcano. Natural hazards, 26: 147-174

Evison, F.F.; Rhoades, D.A. 2001 Model of long-term seismogenesis. Annali di Geofisica, 44(1): 81-93

Rhoades, D.A.; McVerry, G.H. 2001 Joint hazard of earthquake shaking at two or more locations. Earthquake Spectra, 17(4): 697-710

Evison, F.F.; Rhoades, D.A. 1999 The precursory earthquake swarm in Japan : hypothesis test. Earth, Planets and Space, 51: 1267-1277

Evison, F.F.; Rhoades, D.A. 1998 Long-term seismogenic process for major earthquakes in subduction zones. Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, 108(3): 185-199; doi: 10.1016/S0031-9201(98)00104-6

Evison, F.F.; Rhoades, D.A. 1997 The precursory earthquake swarm in New Zealand : hypothesis tests II. New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics, 40(4): 537-547

Rhoades, D.A. 1997 Estimation of attenuation relations for strong-motion data allowing for individual earthquake magnitude uncertainties. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 87(6): 1674-1678

Rhoades, D.A. 1995 Estimation of the Gutenberg - Richter relation allowing for individual earthquake magnitude uncertainties. Tectonophysics, 258 (1/4): 71-83; doi: 10.1016/0040-1951(95)00182-4

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