The future of forecasts and warnings
There is a global need for better hazard forecasting and impact-based warnings that are meaningful and inspire action.
GNS Science Hazard and Risk Management Researcher, Sally Potter, spoke to the topic in an opening plenary at the IAVCEI conference in Rotorua this week.
Using a futuristic scenario,
Sally highlighted the potential for intuitive auto warning messages that encourage and empower actions to support a personal response to forecast ashfall – including child care opportunities, travel arrangements and welfare suggestions. Messaging that is tailored and specific, and speaks to the individual through understanding the data provided by their digital footprint, giving mitigation advice that takes into account their own risk tolerance.
It is a future that would need to be supported by multi-hazard forecasting, people-centred guidance and impact forecasts and it raises some big questions….
- How will artificial intelligence (AI) change modelling and forecasting?
- How do we generate probabilistic and spatial forecasts and enable tailored thresholds for individual risk tolerance?
- Actionable guidance is more effective if it is meaningful to our increasingly diverse audiences. Can big data and AI help provide scalable warning guidance that meets individual needs?
- How can the implications of mistrust, misinformation and verification be managed?
There is a lot of work to do.
“There is huge opportunity and we need to engage our partners, work with our researchers and build our future together,” Sally says.
“Most of all, we need to change the world.”