David Rhoades

In a career spanning more than 40 years, David has honed his knowledge and skills in the development, rigorous testing and application of statistical earthquake forecasting models. He works tirelessly to improve models for earthquake hazard and risk, provide better information on the likelihood and potential impact of future large earthquakes and increase understanding of how earthquakes are generated and what makes communities vulnerable to them.

David is internationally renowned for his role in developing the medium-term earthquake forecasting method, called ‘Every Earthquake a Precursor According to Scale’ (EEPAS). This method can forecast, out to a 20-year timeframe, the expected rate of an earthquake by location, time and magnitude. EEPAS is an integral part of the aftershock forecasts produced by GNS Science and was widely used following the Christchurch and Kaikōura earthquakes; it is also used in earthquake-prone regions throughout the world.

David is an active participant in the California-led Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) and served for many years on Scientific Commissions and Working Groups of the International Association for Seismology and Physics of the Earth's Interior.

His contribution to science and his impact on society was recognised in 2019 when he was made a Fellow of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, the first New Zealand scientist to be awarded this honour.