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Abstract – Wright NZSEE Conference 2012

Wright, K.C., Johnston, D.M., Cousins, W.J., McBride, S.K., 2012, Estimating post-earthquake welfare and sheltering needs following a Wellington earthquake. in proceedings, New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering Technical Conference, Christchurch, New Zealand, 13-15 April, 2012. Paper No. 044, 9p.

ABSTRACT: A future earthquake in the city of Wellington will cause widespread building and infrastructure damage, particularly on soft soils. It is also anticipated that all major transport routes (air, sea, rail and road) out of the region and many within the region will be affected. Such impacts create challenges for the provision of welfare and sheltering in the aftermath of an earthquake. A model framework for calculating evacuation numbers, welfare needs and sheltering requirements is proposed based on a variety of damage and non-damage related factors that contribute to evacuation decision-making. A household’s decision on whether to evacuate or shelter in place is based on a range of factors, including those directly related to earthquake damage such as structural damage and lifeline utility function, and factors that relate to household or neighbourhood liveability such as access to resources, social networks, mobility or dependency. Multiple factors that contribute to household welfare needs and evacuation decision-making have been included to recognise that post-earthquake evacuation decisions are not based on damage states of buildings or loss of lifeline utility services alone. This paper applies structural damage components of the model and discusses the framework for the non-structural component. Preliminary evacuee and sheltering numbers are derived these will be further refined on applying the non-structural evacuation factors. The outputs from this model will assist those tasked with planning for readiness, response and recovery for a major Wellington earthquake event.

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