Home / IOF / It's Our Fault / Abstract – Cousins WCEE2012

Abstract – Cousins WCEE2012

Cousins, W.J., King, A.B., Kanga, M., 2012, Accumulated losses from sequences of earthquake: implications for risk modelling. in proceedings, 15th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering. Lisbon, Portugal, 24-28 September, 2012. Paper WCEE2012-3812. 10 p.

ABSTRACT: We have estimated losses from the seven most damaging events in the sequence of earthquakes that started with the MW 7.1 Darfield, New Zealand, Earthquake of 3 September 2010. Detailed assets models were developed for the buildings and pipe networks of Christchurch, the city most affected. Residual values were generated for each asset after each earthquake and used as input to the following event. Single event losses for buildings ranged from $NZ 1-5 billion, relatively modest, but they accumulated to nearly $20 billion over the sequence. This total was more than 30% of the initial buildings value of $64 billion. Underground pipes showed similar results. Applying the method to the Wellington Region of New Zealand, where the seismic risk is much higher than for Christchurch, again showed that the total loss over a main-shock/aftershock sequence could greatly exceed the main-shock loss. Implications of this for insurance and reconstruction are discussed.

To obtain a full copy of this paper please see your Librarian to interloan.